As drug cartels continue to terrorize Mexico, Texas officials are planning for the worst-case scenario: how to respond if the violence spills over the border, and what to do if thousands of Mexicans seek refuge in the United States.
Katherine Cesinger, a spokeswoman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, said a multi-agency contingency plan is being developed, and it will focus primarily on law enforcement issues, including how to handle an influx of Mexicans fleeing violence.
“At this point, what we’re focusing on is spillover violence,” Cesinger told FOXNews.com Thursday. “The immediate concern, if any, would be that.”
More than 5,300 people were killed in Mexico last year in connection to criminal activity, and some experts predict things will get worse. Along with Pakistan, Mexico was identified in a Department of Defense report last year as a country that could destabilize rapidly.
If that were to happen, officials are concerned that the drug violence could cross the Rio Grande into southern Texas.
Cesinger said the plan currently does not address a potential flood of refugees, though “It may be something that comes into consideration.”
“Worst-case scenario, Mexico becomes the Western hemisphere’s equivalent of Somalia, with mass violence, mass chaos,” said Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “That would clearly require a military response from the United States.”
Carpenter, who recently authored a study entitled “Troubled Neighbor: Mexico’s Drug Violence Poses a Threat to the United States,” said Mexican government could collapse, although it’s unlikely.
“That’s still a relative longshot, but it’s not out of the question,” Carpenter said. “It’s obviously prudent for all of the states along the U.S.-Mexican border and the military to consider that possibility and not get blindsided should it happen.”
Some lawmakers in Texas have begun questioning how to deal with a potentially massive influx of Mexican citizens.
“Do you strengthen the borders so people cannot get in by the thousands every day, or do you create detention centers where people are held until their status is determined?” asked state Sen. Dan Patrick. “This is a potential refugee problem…”
“Let’s pray that this does not develop in Mexico,” Patrick told FOXNews.com. “However, when you hear the president of the United States cast dire warnings on our country, that even our financial system could collapse, it makes you think. If the United States can face catastrophe, obviously Mexico could as well.
“We have to seriously consider that as a remote possibility, so therefore, we need to have a plan.”
Patrick called upon Texas Homeland Security Director Steve McGraw to present a comprehensive plan to the state’s Legislature.
McGraw, who reportedly told lawmakers at a recent border security meeting that fears of Mexico’s collapse were “well-grounded,” was unavailable to comment Thursday, Cesinger said.
Former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff indicated last month that the continuing violence has prompted plans for civilian and military law enforcement should it spread into the United States.
Chertoff said the plan calls for armored vehicles, aircraft and teams of personnel along border hotspots. Military forces, however, would be summoned only if civilian agencies like the Border Patrol were unable to control the violence, the New York Times reported.
DHS spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said the department began developing the plan last summer to address a “broad spectrum of contingencies that could occur” if the violence escalates.
“This violence is happening because the [Felipe] Calderon administration is doing the right thing by cracking down on powerful drug cartels,” Kudwa said in a statement. “The cartels are, predictably, fighting back to protect their lucrative criminal livelihood. This plan doesn’t change or otherwise supersede existing authorities; it plans for how a number of government organizations would respond and coordinate if local resources were to be overwhelmed.”
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano is “continuing to develop that plan,” Kudwa said Thursday.
Meanwhile, Tim Irwin, spokesman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said he was unaware of any plans in Texas to prepare for an influx of Mexicans seeking refuge. Theoretically, Irwin said, a Mexican citizen could go to a border crossing and seek asylum based on fears of returning home amid the ongoing drug wars.
“It’s a valid claim to make, but you’d need to back that up,” Irwin said. “That would start the process.”
Irwin said the individual would be initially detained and given a “credible fear interview” to determine if his or her concerns are valid. If so, they could be eventually be released into the United States.
But Carpenter said the worst-case scenario — a “sudden surge” of up to 1 million refugees in addition to the hundreds of thousands who enter illegally each year — would be daunting.
“That would be very difficult to handle,” Carpenter told FOXNews.com. “I suspect what’d you see fairly soon is an attempt to seal the border as much as possible. That would probably be the initial response, along with the building of additional facilities [to detain the Mexican refugees]. But nobody wants to see that happen.