A Chinese general said Beijing might respond with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked China in a conflict over Taiwan, news reports said Friday.
The comments could add to tensions with Washington at a time of U.S. worries about China’s military buildup and the proposed takeover of the oil company Unocal Corp. by a Chinese state-run company.
“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition into the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu, a dean at China’s National Defense University, told visiting Hong Kong-based reporters. His remarks were reported by The Asian Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times.
Zhu stressed that he was expressing a personal view, not official policy, and was confident that China and the United States would not go to war, the reports said. While Zhu is a serving officer, he isn’t involved in policymaking.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment on the general’s remarks. A woman who answered the phone at the protocol office of the Defense Ministry said it had no comment. She refused to give her name.
China claims Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949, as part of its territory and has threatened to invade if the self-governing island declares formal independence or puts off talks on unification.
Also Friday, the visiting president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, called on Beijing to open direct talks with Taiwan, saying it would help to promote peace in East Asia.
“The international community would welcome China starting a direct dialogue with Taiwan as a sign of great maturity,” Barroso said in a speech at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the government’s main think tank.
China has a “particular responsibility for peace and security in East Asia,” Barroso said. “Both the region and the world as a whole cannot afford conflict in East Asia.”
Zhu was responding to a question about how China might react to U.S. involvement in a conflict with Taiwan, the Journal said. The United States is Taiwan’s biggest arms supplier and could be drawn into fighting to help defend the island.
“If the Americans are determined to interfere … we will be determined to respond, and we Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xi’an,” a major city in central China, Zhu said.
“Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of, or two hundreds of, (or) even more cities will be destroyed by the Chinese,” he said.
The general said his comments were “my assessment, not the policy of the government,” the Journal said.
In Washington, witnesses at congressional hearings this week criticized the bid by Hong Kong-based CNOOC Ltd. to take over Unocal as a strategic effort by China to gain control of foreign energy supplies.
China exploded its first nuclear weapon in 1964 and has an arsenal of missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.
China has a “no first strike” nuclear policy, but according to the Journal, Zhu said he believed that applied to non-nuclear powers and could be changed.
The general said China has no intention of getting into an arms race with the United States, noting the experience of the former Soviet Union as evidence of the futility of doing so, the report said.
I wonder if Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu actually meant they could sacrifice everything west of *Sian* in a conflict with a major power? Or perhaps the reporter missed it. Anyway, several years ago the question of national survivability was studied in depth for all the nuclear powers. As I recall, China was most survivable by several points because of their agrarian society, the population spread out all over the place, and a few other reasons. Of course, that was before Shanghai started looking like this
Shanghai Today
and a bunch of other cities are following close behind.
I hate to think of the end result of a mutual nuke-duke between China and any other major power. For instance, we might have free run of the East and South China Seas as well as the Yellow Sea and several land masses in the general area, but of course China has control of the Panama Canal and we’d have to take care of that in some unpleasant way. But then, on the other hand, China cannot possibly believe anybody on the planet would be stupid enough to match individual numbers of ground troops to the death and leave the high yield equalizer weapons at home, would they? After all, if the good General believes he can sacrifice everything west of Sian and have China survive, then my charts and demographic data must be terribly out of date. Hope we don’t have to find out the hard way some day. But don’t bet your snack change on it.
Seems the Pentagon has not been asleep at the wheel, however, State, in it’s traditional mode, thinks the world is just rosy and commerce is chugging along to the benefit of all.
**************
By Ann Scott TysonWashington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 20, 2005; Page A16
China’s military buildup is broadening the reach of its forces in Asia and poses a long-term threat not only to Taiwan but to the U.S. military in the Pacific and to regional powers such as India and Japan, according to an assessment released yesterday by the Pentagon.
The Beijing government is also improving and expanding its nuclear arsenal, fielding more advanced nuclear missiles capable of striking India, Russia and "virtually all of the United States," said the annual China military power report, based on U.S. intelligence and mandated by Congress. The report, however, said China’s ability to project its conventional military power remains limited.
(Yeah, sure, that’s what they thought about VietNam, if they could kill enough adversaries the ChiComs would get tired and go home, but it does not work that way for China. Anyway, on with the rest of the story)
China’s defense spending could grow to $90 billion in 2005 — three times the Chinese government’s official figure — making the country’s military budget the world’s third-largest, after the United States and Russia, and the biggest in Asia.
The report comes as the Pentagon focuses on China’s steady military modernization as a driving force in long-range U.S. defense strategy and overseas basing, American military officials and analysts say. It generated intense debate within the Bush administration, with the State Department pushing for a benign depiction of China’s intentions, while the Pentagon sought to emphasize a looming threat, defense officials said.
The report suggests a renewed wariness of China on the part of the Bush administration, which has collaborated with Beijing on the effort to curb North Korea’s nuclear programs and in the fight against terrorism since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Yesterday’s report reflected the fact that over the last several years China’s massive investment in defense has become far more stark and deliberate. "Without a doubt, the direction Chinese military modernization has taken in recent years absolutely represents a growing threat to the U.S.," said Evan Medeiros, an expert on China’s military at the Rand Corp. Still, several analysts agreed that U.S. military dominance in the region is secure for at least another decade.
The Pentagon’s 52-page report is factual in tone, deliberately avoiding inflammatory rhetoric that would paint China as an inevitable foe. But it stresses that Beijing’s future course is highly uncertain, and contains detailed charts documenting significant increases in weaponry and military investment.
Many of the advances reflect China’s long-standing priority on building a force capable of preventing Taiwan from achieving formal independence from the mainland..
Last year, China expanded the number of mobile, CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles deployed across the Taiwan Strait from 500 to between 650 and 730. The increase signifies a faster buildup, now at a rate of about 100 missiles per year, while the range and accuracy of the missiles is also improving, the report said.
China now has more than 700 aircraft that can fly to Taiwan without refueling, including new advanced Russian Su-30 and Su- 27 fighter jet and a newly completed indigenous fighter, the F-10, which will be fielded for the first time this year.
In contrast to previous reports, this year’s places a heavier emphasis on the threat posed by the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army to other regional powers beyond Taiwan and to U.S. forces in Asia, as well as to the continental United States.
"Over the long term, if current trends persist, PLA capabilities could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region," the report said.
Indeed, the report quotes a Chinese general as suggesting that China’s focus on Taiwan is an obstacle to the projection of China’s military power elsewhere. The Taiwan issue is of "far-reaching significance to breaking international forces’ blockade against China’s maritime security . . . only when we break this blockade shall we be able to talk about China’s rise," Gen. Wen Zongren, political commissar of the PLA Academy of Military Science, said in an interview quoted in the report. "To rise suddenly, China must pass through oceans and go out of the oceans in its future development."
The report cited expanded Chinese naval operations such as the "intrusion" last year of a Han-class nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters, and new abilities of Chinese fighters to range farther into the South China Sea.
China last year deployed its first two Russian-made guided missile destroyers and is buying eight additional Kilo-class diesel electric submarines from Russia, giving it 12 of the quiet, stealthy vessels. The Kilo submarines will be equipped with long-range anti-ship missile systems that could be used to attack U.S. naval forces from 100 miles away or more, according to Roger Cliff, a military analyst at Rand Corp.
The Chinese navy’s advances are coupled with development of new ground-to-ground and ground-to-air missiles to constitute a Chinese "anti-access" strategy aimed at countering the U.S. ability to operate near its borders, the report says. China’s new S-300PMU2, a surface-to-air missile with a 100-mile range, would allow it "to engage aircraft over Taiwan," the report said, including U.S. aircraft aiding Taiwan in a confrontation with China.
China is also "qualitatively and quantitatively" improving its nuclear missile force, which is now capable of targeting most of the world, including all of the continental United States, the report said.
Of greatest concern, say U.S. military analysts, are the new, mobile DF-31 and DF-31A intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are expected to become operational as early as 2005 and 2007, respectively. Because they are mobile, the missiles are not as vulnerable to destruction by a first strike. "It’s starting to give them a second strike capability against the U.S.," Cliff said.
Details on China’s nuclear advances come against the backdrop of last week’s warning by Chinese Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu that China would respond with nuclear weapons to a U.S. attack on Chinese territory. U.S. analysts who know Zhu say they believe that his views, which he stressed were just his personal opinions, were expressed with at least tacit approval from China’s leaders.
"They think it’s good to have a mad dog in your closet who might scare your potential adversaries," said retired Adm. Dennis Blair, former commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, who heard Zhu make similar comments earlier this year. "It always helps your leverage if your adversaries think you might do something stupid."