American Intelligence News Syndication Fri, 14 Jun 2013 15:02:25 +0000 patriot@americanintelligence.us (American Intelligence) IP.Blog 60
The Syrian government used chemical weapons against its opponents, the Obama administration said Thursday, acknowledging that President Bashar Assad’s regime has crossed the “red line” President Obama laid down for U.S. action.

Putting American boots on the ground in Syria still isn’t an option, but White House officials now say the U.S. will provide other types of “military support” possibly including communications equipment, medical supplies and potentially training for Syrian rebel forces.

“The president has made his decision … we’re just not going to be able to lay out an inventory” of what the U.S. and its allies will provide Syrian opposition forces, said Ben Rhodes, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for strategic communications.

According to new U.S. intelligence assessments, Mr. Assad has deployed sarin gas and other agents against Syrian rebels “multiple times in the past year,” with at least 100 deaths resulting directly from those weapons, Mr. Rhodes told reporters.

He said that there is “a range of options” open to the administration. The first step will be additional assistance to the rebel forces but no American troops in Syria and no implementation of a no-fly zone.

Mr. Assad’s forces apparently used chemical weapons against the opposition on March 19, April 13, May 14 and May 23, according to Mr. Rhodes, who added that circumstances in the war-torn country are growing more dire by the day.

“There is an urgency to the situation. There has been an urgency to the situation for two years. It’s particularly urgent right now,” he said.

Sen. John McCain said the president’s finding should clear the way for the U.S. to begin directly arming the rebel forces, and to impose a no-fly zone over the country to disrupt one of the Syrian regime’s key advantages.

The Arizona Republican, who has visited the country and seen the fight, said the battle in Syria has turned into a much broader proxy war, with Russian arms, Iraqi militant groups and Iranian arms and personnel all backing the Assad regime.

He said the U.S. must take steps — including using cruise missiles — to degrade the regime’s ability to strike at the rebels from the air.

“This is not only a humanitarian issue, it is a national security issue,” he said. “If Iran succeeds in keeping Bashar Assad in power, that will send a message throughout the middle East of Iranian power.”

More than 90,000 people have been killed in Syria since the uprising against Mr. Assad began more than two years ago, according to the United Nations. The rebels, who have always faced an uphill fight against the much better-trained and better-armed Assad forces, have suffered a series of setbacks on the battlefield in recent months.

The White House has come under intense pressure to arm the rebels and level the playing field. This week even former President Clinton criticized the Obama administration for its stance, saying the president risks looking like a “fool” in the eyes of history if he does not intervene strongly.

As a parallel track to military support, the administration also is pushing a diplomatic meeting between the two sides. Though it no longer sees Mr. Assad as a credible leader, Mr. Rhodes said, there are benefits to keeping basic government structures in place.

But the chances of such a sit-down, he added, aren’t good.]]> Thu, 13 Jun 2013 23:40:00 +0000
CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell retired from his post Wednesday, after managing the resignation of former CIA Director David Petraeus over an extramarital affair, and defending the agency's performance over the attack on a U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya.

Morell was passed over for the top CIA spot by President Barack Obama in favor of his counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, who announced Morrell's departure Wednesday.

Brennan said he Morell will be replaced by Avril Haines, currently a deputy assistant to the president and legal adviser at the National Security Council.

Morell agreed to the State Department's request to remove a reference to militants in a controversial memo of talking points on the Libya attack.

Morell also drew criticism for stating that the CIA's interrogation program produced some useful information.]]> Wed, 12 Jun 2013 20:37:00 +0000
Everyone, meet the National Security Agency's Boundless Informant. It's the pretty tool designed to help staffers get an overview of the data collected by the agency and which comes complete with its own Frequently Asked Questions guide. The Guardian's Glenn Greenwald and Ewen MacAskill unleashed another scoop about the NSA's big data troves Saturday afternoon, introducing the world to the agency's handy system for easily "recording and analysing where its intelligence comes from." The program tells staffers how much data was collected in each country. There's a color-coded map showing where most data comes from, with green signifying a relatively low amount of data collected in that country while red means a high amount of data.
Boundless Informant also shows how much data is collected. For example, the Guardian reports the tool "collected 97bn pieces of intelligence from computer networks worldwide." Beyond that, we don't know much about where or how BI fits into the greater data collection infrastructure that includes PRISM and the like.
It is, as the FAQ explains, merely a prototype. What's unclear is whether it includes data collected by PRISM — the government program that allegedly works with major Internet and telecom companies to collect (some) U.S. citizen data. Tech companies never gave PRISM "direct access" to their servers, as was originally reported, but some — Facebook and Google, at least — set up secure drop-boxes for the NSA to collect information on users when demanded via a top-secret FISA request. Boundless Informant appears not to include data collected from FISA requests, the FAQ explains.

But the program's existence shows enough people had to have access to this information, even if it doesn't reveal anything other than quantity and origin, that the NSA built a tool for staffers to use. The alternative would presumably be sending massive reports, filled with complicated tables of data — or numerous individual requests to data analysts.
James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, also released this information fact scheet about PRISM and the NSA's data collection efforts:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/146560040/DNI-statement-about-PRISM]]> Sun, 09 Jun 2013 02:30:00 +0000 The latest revelations about the breadth of the US government’s intelligence dragnet, an apparent effort to monitor a broad range of domestic internet and phone communication in search of foreign terrorists, is a reminder that when it comes to surveillance, the land of the free is more like Syria or Iran than we might think. But don’t worry! Even as the National Security Agency monitors US internet activity, the State Department has been financing technology that will allow people to set up their own networks—the old “internet in a suitcase“—to get around monitoring by governments like Iran’s.

Iran holds a presidential election on June 14. When the last election in 2009 sparked protests both on the streets and online, the government reacted by blocking access to Twitter and Facebook, beefing up online surveillance, and starting work on an Iranian intranet to allow it central control over access to the world wide web.

Last week, the US announced that it would lift sanctions on certain hardware and software, including anti-tracking programs and virtual private networks that Iranians could use to circumvent the Ayatollah’s watchful eye. It also introduced new sanctions on individuals and companies, like Ofogh Saberin, that censor Iranian internet access.

To add a third layer of irony, the equipment Iran is using to build its surveillance and censorship apparatus is likely American. A Reuters investigation found that Iran’s government-controlled telecommunications firm bought US-made surveillance equipment from a Chinese company as part of a $130.6 million deal, to dodge international sanctions. The goods came from companies that included Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Symantec and HP.

The differences between the Iranian and US approaches to internet control are still large. Iran blocks entire services and censors expression, while installing extensive monitoring software without apparent legal fetters. The US government hasn’t attempted censorship, and its monitoring is subject to laws, congressional oversight, and judicial approval. However, those legal restraints are turning out to be a lot more permissive than anyone had thought.]]> Sat, 08 Jun 2013 14:38:00 +0000
Russia is ready to replace peacekeepers from Austria in the Golan Heights, President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, after Vienna said it would recall its troops from a U.N. monitoring force due to worsening fighting in Syria.
Austria, whose peacekeepers account for about 380 of the 1,000-strong U.N. force observing a four-decade-old ceasefire between Syria and Israel, said it would pull out after intense clashes between Syrian government forces and rebels on the border.
"Given the complicated situation in the Golan Heights, we could replace the leaving Austrian contingent in this region on the border between Israeli troops and the Syrian army," Putin said at a televised meeting with Russian military officers.
"But this will happen, of course, only if the regional powers show interest, and if the U.N. secretary general asks us to do so," he said.
Russia, a long-time ally and arms supplier to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has been trying along with Western powers to bring the warring sides in Syria together into talks on a solution to the more than two-year-old conflict.
The U.N. Security Council will meet on Friday to discuss the Austrian withdrawal after anti-Assad rebels briefly seized the crossing between Israel and Syria, sending U.N. staff scurrying to bunkers before Syrian soldiers managed to push them back.]]> Fri, 07 Jun 2013 13:44:00 +0000
The U.S. will send anti-missile batteries and fighter jets to Jordan at the kingdom's request to boost defense capabilities in the face of an attack from neighboring Syria, Jordanian officials said Wednesday.
The equipment is being sent to Jordan as part of preparations for an annual joint military exercise, but the officials said some would be kept in the country amid fears that the civil war raging in Syria will spill over the border.
The U.S.-made Patriot batteries are designed to detect and shoot down Scud and other short-range missiles, which are part of Syria's arsenal. They could also be used in enforcing a no-fly-zone, which is backed by Jordan and other neighbors of Syria. A no-fly zone is so far opposed by the U.S. and its allies but is considered in the range of possibilities.
That could fuel speculation about a possible U.S. military offensive, although Washington has repeatedly said that was unlikely of offer more than non-lethal aid. A series of regime successes against the rebels fighting to oust President Bashar Assad is likely to build pressure on the international community to act.
Two Jordanian security officials involved in the deployment, expected in the coming days, said that Washington is sending one or two Patriot missile batteries to the northern border with Syria and a squadron of 12 to 24 F-16 warplanes as part of the international military maneuver "Eager Lion." They said the batteries had been deployed to a Gulf Arab nation to shield it against attack from Iran, but were being relocated to Jordan as the Syrian crisis intensifies.
They declined to say if the F-16s will be deployed in an air base in northern Jordan or be stationed elsewhere along the 375-kilometer (233-mile) Jordanian-Syrian border.
The security officials said some or all the weapons will remain beyond the 11 day exercise that begins Sunday, but declined to say how long they would stay. The two officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to release sensitive military information on troop and weapon deployment.
A Pentagon spokesman acknowledged that Jordan has submitted a request for the Patriots to be kept in Jordan after the exercise concludes, although he did not know whether that included keeping F-16s in the country.
The spokesman, Col. Steve Warren said Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has not yet seen the request but is likely to approve it once he has reviewed it because the U.S. wants to do all it can to help Jordan deal with the Syria crisis. Hagel was attending a NATO meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, then flying back to Washington.
"They are a close partner with us. We have a longstanding and a strong relationship with the Jordanians, and we want to do what we can to support their security requirements," Warren said.
Russia, one of Syrian President Bashar Assad's main allies, denounced the decision.
"We have repeatedly stated our stance on this before: foreign weapons are being pumped into an explosive region," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said. "We have to repeat that this is happening very close to Syria where the flames are burning of a devastating conflict that Russia and its American partners are trying to stop by proposing to hold an international peace conference as soon as possible."
The Russian news agency Interfax also quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov as saying Wednesday that Russia has no intention to raise the issue of the U.S. plans to place Patriot missile systems in Jordan in the meeting on the preparations for an international conference on Syria scheduled to be held in Geneva on Wednesday.
"We will probably not discuss the supply of Patriot systems with them tomorrow," Gatilov reportedly said.
Jordan is concerned that the Syrian regime may attack neighbors who back the opposition seeking to topple him. Government officials said previously that Jordan had asked Washington for the Patriots several months ago, when Syrian rockets started straying into Jordan and in the wake of several shooting incidents that killed at least 10 Syrian refugees as they crossed into the kingdom in the past 10 months.
In January, NATO deployed Patriot missile batteries along Turkey's 560-mile border with Syria, in response to a formal Turkish request after Syrian artillery shells began straying into Turkey last fall, and especially since one of these claimed the lives of five people on the border.
Jordanian Information Minister Mohammad Momani did not confirm the deployment but said at a news conference that the kingdom "wants these advanced weapons because we think they are important for our military and defense capabilities."
Last month, the United States sent about 200 soldiers from an army headquarters unit to Jordan. At the time, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the servicemen will assist their Jordanian ally in efforts to contain violence along the Syrian border and plan for any operations needed to ensure the safety of chemical weapons in Syria. The dispatch of the 1st Armored Division troops of planners and specialists in intelligence, logistics and operations came as several American Congressmen pressed the Obama administration for even more aggressive steps to end the two-year civil war in Syria.
The U.S. along with allies Britain and France are also training moderate Syrian opposition forces in Jordan.]]> Thu, 06 Jun 2013 01:51:00 +0000
An al Qaeda terrorist stated in a recent online posting that U.S. Ambassador to Libya J. Christopher Stevens was killed by lethal injection after plans to kidnap him during the Sept. 11 attacks in Benghazi went bad.

The veracity of the claim by Abdallah Dhu-al-Bajadin, who was identified by U.S. officials as a weapons expert for al Qaeda, could not be determined. However, U.S. officials have not dismissed the terrorist's assertion.

An FBI spokeswoman indicated that the bureau is aware of the claim but declined to comment because of the ongoing investigation into the Benghazi attacks.
"While there is a great deal of information in the media and on the Internet about the attack in Benghazi, the FBI is not in a position at this time to comment on anything specific with regard to the investigation," spokeswoman Kathy Wright said.

A State Department spokesman had no comment.

The FBI is investigating the deaths of Stevens, State Department information officer Sean Smith, and former Navy SEALs Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty. They were killed in attacks that U.S. officials say were carried out by an al Qaeda-linked group known as Ansar al-Sharia.

A State Department Accountability Review Board report and an interim House Republican report on the attacks gave no cause of death for Stevens, whose body was recovered by Libyans in the early hours of Sept. 12.

The House report, "Interim Progress Report for the House Republican Conference," said that "Libyan doctors tried unsuccessfully to resuscitate Ambassador Stevens upon his arrival at the hospital."

To date, no official cause of death for Stevens has been made public, although it was reported that a Libyan doctor who examined Stevens said he died from apparent smoke inhalation and related asphyxiation.

Video and photos of Stevens being handled by a mob in Benghazi were posted on the Internet. It is not clear from the images whether he was dead or alive at the time.

According to a March 14 posting on an al Qaeda-linked website, Dhu-al-Bajadin stated that Stevens was given a lethal injection that was overlooked during the autopsy.

The "plan was based on abduction and exchange of high-level prisoners," the terrorist wrote on the prominent jihadist Web forum Ansar al-Mujahideen Network. "However, the operation took another turn, for a reason God only knows, when one of the members of the jihadist cell improvised and followed Plan B."

Dhu-al-Bajadin's claim of assassination also was copied to the Ansar al-Mujahidin website from the al Qaeda-accredited website Shumukh al-Islam. That site is open only to members, and the claim initially was posted for Dhu-al-Bajadin by a member identified as Adnan Shukri.

The reference to Shumukh al-Islam has boosted the credibility of the claim among some U.S. intelligence analysts. A Western intelligence official said Dhu-al-Bajadin is a well-known jihadist and a key figure behind a magazine called Al Qaeda Airlines.

According to this official, intelligence analysts believe Dhu-al-Bajadin's claim of assassination by lethal injection appears aimed, in part, at pressuring the U.S. government on its handling of the Benghazi attacks.

The article did not say what substance was used in the lethal injection. It also stated that the State Department had come under criticism for not providing adequate security in Benghazi before the attacks.

Dhu-al-Bajadin said he had more details about the attacks and the assassination, but would not reveal them in the posting.

The Washington Free Beacon obtained a copy of the translation of Dhu-al-Bajadin's posting in Arabic.

The article stated that lethal injections are done in "more than one place in the human body that autopsy doctors ignore when they see that the symptoms are similar to another specific and common illness."

"Anyone who studied the art of silent assassination that spies applied during the Cold War would easily identify these parts of the body," the article stated.

Dhu-al-Bajadin has said the Al Qaeda Airlines publication is not solely focused on aviation but was chosen as a way to instill fear in the enemy.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/4/al-qaeda-weapons-expert-us-ambassador-libya-killed/#ixzz2VL9ylXD4
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 11:28:00 +0000
France said Tuesday it has confirmed that the nerve gas sarin was used "multiple times and in a localized way" in Syria, including at least once by the regime. It was the most specific claim by any Western power aboutchemical weapons attacks in the 27-month-old conflict.
Britain later said that tests it conducted on samples taken from Syria also were positive for sarin.
The back-to-back announcements left many questions unanswered, highlighting the difficulties of confirming from a distance whether combatants in Syria have crossed the "red line" set by President Barack Obama. The regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has refused to allow U.N. investigators into the country.
The French and British findings, based on samples taken from Syria, came hours after a U.N. team said it had "reasonable grounds" to suspect small-scale use of toxic chemicals in at least four attacks in March and April.
The U.N. probe was conducted from outside Syria's borders, based on interviews with doctors and witnesses of purported attacks and a review of amateur videos from Syria. The team said solid evidence will remain elusive until inspectors can collect samples from victims directly or from the sites of alleged attacks.
Some experts cautioned that the type of evidence currently available to investigators — videos, witness reports and physiological samples of uncertain origin — leaves wide doubts.
At the same time, forensic evidence of alleged chemical weapons use is fading away with time, and the longer U.N. inspectors are kept out of Syria, the harder it will be to collect conclusive proof, they said.
Syria is suspected of having one of the world's largest chemical weapons arsenals, including mustard and nerve gas, such as sarin. In recent weeks, the regime and those trying to topple Assad have increasingly used accusations of chemical weapons as a propaganda tool, but have offered no solid proof.
In the West, meanwhile, the lack of certainty about such allegations is linked to a high stakes political debate over whether the U.S. should get more involved in the Syria conflict, including by arming those fighting Assad.
Obama has been reluctant to send weapons to the Syrian rebels, in part because of the presence of Islamic militants among them. Obama has warned that the use of chemical weapons or their transfer to a terrorist group would cross a "red line," hinting at forceful intervention in such an event.
Yet he has insisted on a high level of proof, including a "chain of custody," that can only come from on-site investigations currently being blocked by the regime.
In Tuesday's announcement about sarin, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said his government had analyzed several samples, including some brought back from Syria by reporters from the Le Monde newspaper.
He said that there was "no doubt" that at least in one case, the regime and its allies were responsible for the attack. "We have integrally traced the chain, from the attack, to the moment people were killed, to when the samples were taken and analyzed," Fabius told the TV station France 2.
He said a line was crossed and that "all options are on the table," including intervening "militarily where the gas is produced or stored."
In London, Britain's Foreign Office said samples from Syria were tested at a government laboratory and the presence of sarin was confirmed. It did not say when or where the samples were obtained.
Britain has evidence suggesting a number of different chemical agents have been used, "sometimes including sarin, sometimes not," said Britain's ambassador to the United Nations, Mark Lyall Grant.
White House spokesman Jay Carney, speaking before the British announcement, said the French report is "entirely consistent" with the Obama administration's own findings, but added more work needs to be done to establish who is responsible for the use of the toxic substances and when they were used.
"We need more information," he said.
Russia, meanwhile, has rejected intelligence the U.S. provided last month suggesting the Assad regime used chemical weapons on its own people, American officials said. A U.S. diplomatic delegation that was sent to Moscow failed to persuade Russian officials and prompted no change in the Kremlin's support for Assad, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
Experts disagreed on whether the latest chemical weapons allegations mean Obama's red line has been crossed.
"The verdict is still open," said Jean Pascal Zanders, an independent chemical weapons consultant, speaking before the French and British announcements.
Zanders said that while claims of chemical weapons use cannot be ignored, the details of the alleged attacks often don't correspond to the purported symptoms shown in videos or reported by witnesses.
Analyst Michael Eisenstadt said he believes Obama's red line "has indeed been crossed on a number of times, as there are persistent reports of limited, continued use of chemical weapons from various sources that seem fairly credible."
The French findings give additional weight to previous suspicions, though "people will want to know about the chain of custody for the evidence," said Eisenstadt, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.
Since allegations of the use of chemical weapons first emerged late last year, the U.N. has investigated on two separate tracks, while France, Britain, Turkey and the U.S. have conducted additional probes.
The team appointed by the Human Rights Council has issued periodic updates about suspected war crimes in Syria, and Tuesday's report dealt with chemical weapons, among a wide range of topics.
Separately, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon appointed a U.N. team headed by Swedish chemical weapons experts Ake Sellstrom after the Syrian government asked for an investigation of a purported rebel attack on March 19 on the village of Khan al-Assal, near the northern city of Aleppo.
Syrian soldiers were reportedly killed, and the regime insisted that the U.N. probe be limited to that incident.
Ban wants a broader investigation, including a December incident in the central city of Homs in which opposition activists claimed six rebels died after inhaling white smoke pouring from shells fired in the area. Britain and France have also pushed to widen Sellstrom's mandate, sending Ban information on additional alleged incidents.
Such allegations are typically based on three types of information that can be obtained without having investigators go into Syria — amateur videos, witness accounts and physiological samples.
Witnesses and doctors have been interviewed by Skype or after fleeing Syria, while Turkey, Britain and France have analyzed samples that were either smuggled out of the country or taken from suspected victims after they were hospitalized outside Syria.
The Obama administration also referred to such samples when it said in an April letter to two U.S. senators that the U.S. intelligence community had determined, with "varying degrees of confidence," that the regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale, specifically the nerve gas sarin.
However, the administration cautioned that intelligence assessments are not sufficient, citing the stakes involved.
Claims of chemical weapons attacks also pose a dilemma for journalists.
Some of the videos posted by activists have shown rows of people lying in what appear to be makeshift hospitals, breathing with the aid of oxygen masks, sometimes twitching as they struggle to breathe.
Such videos are often consistent with AP reporting of attacks in that area, but claims that chemical weapons were involved are impossible to verify. The regime continues to bar most independent reporting from areas of fighting.
For example, activists alleged that on May 24, troops fired two rockets with poisonous gas at the rebel-held town of Adra near the capital Damascus, killing three people and wounding more than 40.
Amateur video from a makeshift clinic in the nearby town of Douma where victims were being treated showed young men lying on the floor, some of them twitching as medics poured water on their bodies.
The AP did not report the incident at the time because of the difficulty of confirming the claims. A local reporter who visited the area several days later to interview a doctor and a rebel commander found the evidence was not clear-cut.
A doctor at the Douma clinic who identified himself only by his first name, Seif, for fear of regime retribution, said 60 victims arrived that day and six of them died.
"It was the scariest thing I saw, people came in with strange symptoms like blurred vision, dilated pupils, teary eyes," he told The Associated Press. "Some had running saliva or were foaming at the mouth."
Abu Khaled al-Ijweh, a commander of the Lions of Ghouta Brigade, a rebel unit, said he witnessed the attack. He said regime forces fired two suspicious projectiles and fighters started to throw up, with some struggling to walk and dropping to the ground. Al-Ijweh said he managed the symptoms by wearing a mask, drinking vinegar and a liter of water.
In some cases, there is no way to reconcile the opposing narratives.
On April 19, activists said the government bombed the northern town of Saraqeb with chemical agents that caused respiratory problems and other symptoms in people who were exposed to them. The state news agency claimed "terrorists" brought bags of an unknown white powder to Saraqeb and opened them. It said the terrorists — the regime's term for the rebels — then transported the injured to Turkish hospitals to "accuse the Syrian armed troops of using chemical weapons."
Zanders, the chemical weapons expert, counseled extreme caution.
He noted claims often don't match the symptoms. Other options, while also conjecture, should at least be considered, such as shells inadvertently hitting shops or homes where chemicals are stored, or the regime using tear gas to instill fear at a time of heightened awareness about the dangers of chemical weapons.
"It becomes a self-reinforcing echo chamber," he said.]]> Wed, 05 Jun 2013 01:50:00 +0000
The news that Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile batteries may be deployed in Syria is a reminder that more than 40 years ago the Israel Air Force fought major duels against such weapons. Then it was Soviet SA-2s, SA-3s and SA-6s deployed in Egypt, at the time a severe challenge to the IAF.
Already during the Vietnam War it became apparent that newly developed Soviet surface-to-air missiles had changed the balance between aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons. During the War of Attrition the Soviets convinced President Anwar Sadat that Egypt could neutralize Israeli air superiority by fielding Soviet surface-to-air missiles.
During the last months of the War of Attrition in 1970, Soviet surface-to-air missiles in Egypt, some manned by Soviet personnel, were denying the IAF air superiority over areas covered by these missiles. It was a lesson the Israel Defense Forces had still not learned when the Yom Kippur War broke out three years later.
In violation of the cease-fire concluded in August 1970, the Egyptians moved their ant-aircraft missile batteries toward the Suez Canal. By then it should have been clear that the IAF would not be able to provide adequate support for Israeli ground forces in the area if war broke out. Nevertheless, Israel’s strategy in 1973 was based on the assumption that small regular-army ground forces would, with the help of air support, throw back any Egyptian attempt to cross the canal. It was a strategy that failed. Only the arrival of reserve forces saved the situation.
Nine years later, during the first Lebanon war, the IAF tilted the balance between air power and ground-based anti-air missiles back in favor of air power. Syria's Soviet-made SA-2, SA-3 and SA-6 batteries deployed in Lebanon were destroyed in one day without the loss of a single Israeli aircraft. Technological advances and clever tactics had neutralized the batteries.
Faced with the defeat of the much-touted Soviet weapons system, there was great consternation in Moscow. The Soviets went to work developing more-advanced surface-to- air missile systems. The premier example is the S-300, a mobile, long-range system using phased-array radar, first developed in the Soviet Union and now manufactured and improved in Russia. It has become a major Russian export and has been sold to many countries including China, Algeria and Greece. Russia has signed a contract to sell this system to Syria, although it's uncertain when delivery will take place.
It's not certain that the introduction of this system has regained the advantage that surface-to-air missiles enjoyed in the 70s, substantially changing the balance between air power and anti-aircraft systems. In any case, its deployment in Syria constitutes a significant upgrade in Syria's anti-aircraft capabilities and would be a challenge for the IAF.
What would happen in a duel between the IAF and the S-300 system deployed in Syria? That's a question of great interest not only to Israel and Syria, but also to the powers that be in Moscow.
Should the Russians conclude that the IAF is likely to overcome the S-300, the loss of prestige and marketability of that system might outweigh the immediate financial benefits of the sale to Syria. Even the sale's contribution in enhancing Russia's political position vis-a-vis the West in Syria might turn out to be a very dubious asset. In that case, the Syrians may have to wait a long time before the S-300 system is delivered.]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 05:39:00 +0000 BEIRUT — Thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants were massed around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Sunday, according to rebels and a senior commander in the Lebanese Shiite movement, broadening Hezbollah’s backing of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and stoking fears of an imminent assault on the city.
The commander, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media, said there were about 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in Aleppo province, largely stationed in Shiite towns north of the city. The rebel Free Syrian Army said Hezbollah forces had gathered in a suburb of the city Sunday and appeared to be preparing for an attack.

Rebels have secured swaths of Aleppo — Syria’s commercial capital and most populous city — since fighting engulfed it last summer, but the two sides have been locked in a grinding stalemate for months. An assault on the city could stretch rebel forces, which have sent reinforcements from Aleppo to fight against Hezbollah and Syrian troops in the battle for the town of Qusair, near the Lebanese border.

The claims of a Hezbollah presence in Syria’s north follow a pledge by its leader,Hasan Nasrallah, to back Assad to victory and indicate that the movement could be used as a guerrilla force wherever required. A long-standing ally of Syria and Iran, its decision to knuckle into the fight raises the specter of a regional conflagration spilling over Syria’s borders, pitting Sunni against Shiite. Underscoring that point, Syrian rebels and Hezbollah fighters engaged Sunday in their first serious clashes on Lebanese soil.

“The Aleppo battle has started on a very small scale; we’ve only just entered the game,” said the Hezbollah commander in an interview in Beirut on Saturday while on leave from fighting in Qusair, where he oversees five units. “We are going to go after strongholds where they think they are safe. They are going to fall like dominoes.”

He said the militants were largely concentrated around the Shiite towns of Zahra and Nubol, which have been under siege from largely Sunni rebel forces. A spokesman for Hezbollah said he could not confirm or deny their presence.

Louay al-Mokdad, political and media coordinator for the Free Syrian Army, said Hezbollah militants had gathered at a military academy in Aleppo’s western district of Hamdaniyah on Sunday. He put the number of the Shiite movement’s soldiers in the area at 4,000, quoting rebel intelligence.

“We think they are going to engage inside Aleppo and the province,” he said.

In what appeared to preparation for that, pro-government forces began a push to secure supply lines to the city on Sunday, activists said.

Aleppo-based activist Kareem Abeed said pro-government forces had advanced from the military academy in Hamdaniyah, with rebels repelling an attack in the Rashideen neighborhood.

The infiltration of Hezbollah fighters into Syria — along with the supply of weapons from Russia and Iran — has helped turn the tide in favor of Assad’s government, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday.

“We are seeing, unfortunately, a battlefield situation where Bashar al-Assad now has the upper hand, and it’s tragic,” McCain, who slipped into Syria last week to meet with rebel fighters, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

McCain, who has repeatedly called for military action in Syria and who has been among the harshest critics of the Obama administration on the issue, recalled claims from U.S. officials dating back more than year ago that Assad’s fall was inevitable.

“I think we can’t make that statement today,” he said. “Hezbollah [has] now invaded. The Iranians are there. Russia is pouring weapons in.

And anybody that believes that Bashar Assad is going to go to a conference in Geneva when he is prevailing on the battlefield — it’s just ludicrous to assume that.”
McCain was referring to an international conference planned for this month or possibly July to bring the warring sides together. The Syrian opposition has said it will not attend while Hezbollah’s siege of Qusair continues.

The siege showed no sign of abating Sunday, as Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem rejected a request from the United Nations to allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to enter the town immediately and tend to an estimated 1,500 wounded trapped inside.

The Hezbollah commander boasted about gains in Qusair, saying that when he left the battlefield for leave a week ago, the movement controlled 70 percent of the city at the cost of 72 of its men. He said 3,000 Hezbollah fighters are in the town, among “no more than 10,000” in the whole of Syria.

However, Sami al-Rifaie, an activist based in Qusair, said rebels have made gains since reinforcements arrived, with Hezbollah and army control reduced to 20 percent of the city.

Liwa al-Tawhid Brigade, one of the largest opposition groups in the area, has sent men from Aleppo to back embattled rebels in Qusair.

In a sign that Hezbollah may be under more strain than expected, the commander said that seven-days-on, seven-days-off military rotations have been changed to 20 days on before a week-long leave.

Justifying Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict, Nasrallah has painted the largely Sunni opposition to Assad as extremist Muslims backed by the United States and Israel, Hezbollah’s long-standing enemy. He has warned that they will eventually invade Lebanon if they are not put down across the border.

But even after announcing all-out backing for Assad, Hezbollah fighters had been largely confined to Qusair, which is just a few miles from Lebanon, and in Damascus suburbs around the Shiite shrine of Sayyida Zeinab, which it has pledged to protect.

In a video posted online Saturday, a battalion of the Liwa al-Tawhid Brigade declared it was leaving for Zahra and Nubol to fight the “party of the devil,” a term often used by rebels to refer to Hezbollah, which translates as Party of God.

If Hezbollah is present in Aleppo, it is plausible that it could be utilized anywhere in the country, said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East-based analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“A deployment so deep into Syria and in such a crucial place would be a clear indication that Hezbollah’s role in Syria was never limited to defensive aims but is geared toward helping Assad score major victories,” he said.

Hezbollah’s entanglement in Syria has sparked a backlash within fragile Lebanon, with Syrian rebels firing rockets on Shiite areas of the country with increasing frequency in recent weeks.

On Sunday, according to Lebanese security individuals quoted by the Reuters news agency, one member of Hezbollah and at least 12 rebels were killed in clashes in Ain el-Jaouze, a finger of Lebanese territory that juts into Syria, near Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley town of Baalbek. The men may have been ambushed by Hezbollah as they tried to fire rockets at Shiite areas of the Bekaa Valley, they said.

“The presence of Hezbollah units around Aleppo will only deepen the divide in Lebanon and confirm, in the eyes of its rivals, Hezbollah’s complete alignment with Assad,” Hokayem said.]]> Tue, 04 Jun 2013 01:13:00 +0000